Moana underperformed and became the latest big summer release to bomb. At one point, some thought this might get to $1 billion, so do these results surprise you at all?

I guess I'm a little surprised it opened so below the original projections, but it always felt like it was much too soon to remake Moana. Even if Moana 2 didn't come out, it's only been 10 years.

Yes and no. A year or so ago this looked nailed on for $1 billion. Even a couple of months ago it seemed likely be one of summer's biggest hits, when you consider how much Moana has grown in popularity since its release in 2016 (Disney+ records etc) and the success of Lilo & Stitch last year. But it did also look terrible, and the animated franchise is still very strong and recent thanks to Moana 2, we might be at a stage where The Rock is more of a turn-off than a box office draw, and then the reviews really condemned it, whereas it might've got more walk-ups if it'd been a rave.

It's also just a bit of a weird summer and timing making it difficult for lots of movies: World Cup, the America 250 stuff before this, people having bought tickets and/or saving themselves for The Odyssey and Brand New Day (both of which have massive pre-sales), I think we're incresingly seeing that people have to choose 1-2 movies per month to go to and that just doesn't work for these huge budget tentpoles being crammed together, especially for families who've been squeezed a lot (you've just seen Toy Story a couple of weeks ago, you maybe went to Minions, you've got Spidey coming up, Moana becomes a push when you can just watch the better version at home on a service you're already paying for).

I think people are tired of The Rock, but also families are also still seeing Toy Story 5 in droves. Word of mouth and reviews are good on that one, and you know it won't be too much for younger kids, and Moana has none of those.

On 7/13/2026 at 5:30 AM, James Hunt said:

Yes and no. A year or so ago this looked nailed on for $1 billion. Even a couple of months ago it seemed likely be one of summer's biggest hits, when you consider how much Moana has grown in popularity since its release in 2016 (Disney+ records etc) and the success of Lilo & Stitch last year. But it did also look terrible, and the animated franchise is still very strong and recent thanks to Moana 2, we might be at a stage where The Rock is more of a turn-off than a box office draw, and then the reviews really condemned it, whereas it might've got more walk-ups if it'd been a rave.

It's also just a bit of a weird summer and timing making it difficult for lots of movies: World Cup, the America 250 stuff before this, people having bought tickets and/or saving themselves for The Odyssey and Brand New Day (both of which have massive pre-sales), I think we're incresingly seeing that people have to choose 1-2 movies per month to go to and that just doesn't work for these huge budget tentpoles being crammed together, especially for families who've been squeezed a lot (you've just seen Toy Story a couple of weeks ago, you maybe went to Minions, you've got Spidey coming up, Moana becomes a push when you can just watch the better version at home on a service you're already paying for).

Yeah. In retrospect, the release date for Moana didn't make a whole lot of sense. Reminds me a bit of Elio last year coming out right after Lilo and Stitch and How to Train Your Dragon. There was no demand for another family movie.

I'm honestly not surprised. We've watched the first Moana numerous times, but I feel like people are tired of the Rock.

100% not surprised in the slightest.