Well, every online forum eventually needs this discussion, so I'm happy to get it started here. In the last year or so, I've been less hopeful about ever reading The Winds of Winter than I have been at any other time since getting into the series. Still, I think I'll always have some glimmer of hope that GRRM will give us a great ending. At the very least, it makes it easier to get up every morning if I keep hope alive 😭

This is a pretty deep rabbit hole with a lot of warrens to go down, including GRRM's historical writing pace and his history of leaving ambitious works unfinished. On the other hand, there's one train of thought that really makes me hopeful, which is that GRRM needs to realize he can't finish his story in just two more books. There are too many characters and subplots to wrap up to get it done in two more volumes. He has realized this before and expanded the series — ASOIAF was originally planned as a trilogy, for example — and I think if he honestly wants his magnum opus finished, he'll realize this is the only way. That's why I really think that if we get Winds, we'll get the rest of the series, because if he finishes a publishable version of Winds, it'll break the dam and he'll be able to see the path to the ending he wants. Considering that he's at least 75% finished with Winds, I think it's still reasonable to hope that he'll have this realization, and the finished version of ASOIAF will have eight or nine volumes rather than seven.

I've lowkey had this personal theory that dude has the whole thing finished in a drawer somewhere but keeps tinkering with it, but more realistically I think he's probably either written himself into a corner or gotten bored with it and he's also spread himself really thin with other projects so he's just stuck.

Honestly, I don't think we'll ever get the ending or if we do, it won't be a complete ending the way we hope.

14 hours ago, Nicole Drum said:

I've lowkey had this personal theory that dude has the whole thing finished in a drawer somewhere but keeps tinkering with it…

Would be VERY pleasantly surprised if this was the case - especially since a) the shows are the current pop culture “canon” for how the story ends and b) he’s said he wouldn’t want anyone to finish them for him.

1 hour ago, Ben Kendrick said:

Would be VERY pleasantly surprised if this was the case - especially since a) the shows are the current pop culture “canon” for how the story ends and b) he’s said he wouldn’t want anyone to finish them for him.

If I end up being right about this, I am going to be insufferable. But yes, his stance of not wanting anyone to finish them is really what leads me to believe there is a finished draft somewhere. Maybe not the "perfect" one he wants, but a finished one.

Another question is, by the time it releases, will anyone really care?

16 hours ago, Nicole Drum said:

Honestly, I don't think we'll ever get the ending or if we do, it won't be a complete ending the way we hope.

19 minutes ago, wolfman said:

Another question is, by the time it releases, will anyone really care?

Good points — GRRM definitely knows that his ending wouldn't please everyone, and that it would stir up some new negative commentary. That has to be a factor in his writer's block as well.

My theory is that, having worked on this story for so many years, and knowing where it is ultimately heading, Martin is actually pretty bored with his own work and thus uneager to drill down and finish it. I'm pretty sure we only got A Dance With Dragons because he was facing so much pressure to time a new release with the premiere of Game of Thrones.

So no, I don't think we're ever getting it finished, and I don't think anyone else should do it for him. At best, we may get a Silmarillion-esque collection of his notes sometime down the line.

I'm not hoolding my breath. I don't think it's high on his list of priorities right now. He may have written himself into a corner or fears the negative reaction fans will have no matter how he ends the book.