Dune: Part 3 and Avengers: Doomsday are both set to release on December 18, so you think they both stick to that date? Or are they just trying to manufacture their own Barbenheimer with Dunesday?

I don't see either one moving from their date, so perhaps we get a mini barbenheimer before Christmas. That said, they feel like in some ways they are going for some of the same audience, so not sure how that's going to work out or who will get the worst end of that match-up.

Yeah, any of them changing the dates is a sign of weakness, as the message would be "our movie is not good enough to compete with X." I think the only way out would be for both studios to sit down and decide together to change both dates, but that's never going to happen. As is, they will try to make Dunesday happen, but since they are definitely reaching for the same audience, that can't work too well.

Agreed, don't see it changing right now. Marvel certainly can't - they've already gone hard into marketing with four teasers, the movie has been delayed a lot already, and they need a show of strength. Dune 3 is maybe a tiny bit more plausible, especially with some uncertainty around WB, but it's still not easy to see - the end of the year has a lot of big releases, so it would require quite of bit of shuffling: they've got Digger and Clayface in October, which is probably the earliest the movie could be ready for, The Great Beyond in mid-November, and then Thanksgiving is already busy with Hunger Games/Narnia (which takes up the IMAX slots, so that's a no go anyway). So it'd mean pushing one of those, or moving Dune 3 back into 2027, neither of which seems like something they'd want to do.

I'm reasonably optimistic about both movies' chances, tbh. I don't see Doomsday hitting the heights of Infinity War and Endgame anyway, but it'll still be the year's highest-grossing movie. Dune 3 doesn't need to be a billion-dollar movie, if it repeats Part 2's haul it's doing well. Both should have strong holiday legs, Dune 3 gets the PLF boost while Doomsday has the bigger general audience pull, they'll inevitably put a slight dent in each other but I think both will be fine, and we win as moviegoers.

For the longest time, I figured one would move to avoid the direct competition. Unlike Barbenheimer, Doomsday and Dune are ostensibly targeting a similar audience. But now I think we're just on course for the head to head showdown. Dune just locked in the exclusive IMAX run. WB isn't gonna want to give that up.

Both of the Barbenheimer movies nearly made $1 billion, so there's a precedent for "Dunesday" to be just as massive.

6 hours ago, James Hunt said:

Agreed, don't see it changing right now. Marvel certainly can't - they've already gone hard into marketing with four teasers, the movie has been delayed a lot already, and they need a show of strength. Dune 3 is maybe a tiny bit more plausible, especially with some uncertainty around WB, but it's still not easy to see - the end of the year has a lot of big releases, so it would require quite of bit of shuffling: they've got Digger and Clayface in October, which is probably the earliest the movie could be ready for, The Great Beyond in mid-November, and then Thanksgiving is already busy with Hunger Games/Narnia (which takes up the IMAX slots, so that's a no go anyway). So it'd mean pushing one of those, or moving Dune 3 back into 2027, neither of which seems like something they'd want to do.

I'm reasonably optimistic about both movies' chances, tbh. I don't see Doomsday hitting the heights of Infinity War and Endgame anyway, but it'll still be the year's highest-grossing movie. Dune 3 doesn't need to be a billion-dollar movie, if it repeats Part 2's haul it's doing well. Both should have strong holiday legs, Dune 3 gets the PLF boost while Doomsday has the bigger general audience pull, they'll inevitably put a slight dent in each other but I think both will be fine, and we win as moviegoers.

Heh, this feels almost like a conversation we were having at the very time this was posted :P And yeah, on reflection, I think they'll stick. I was initially concerned about Doomsday losing the IMAX screens, but I'm less bothered about that now I've looked into it a bit.

I agree with most that I do not see either changing the date. Some could see it as a sign of weakness for sure. If I were Dune, I would. I know Marvel might not have the same appeal as it did for Endgame but Doomsday is an event and I wouldn’t want to compete with that.

If anything I could see Dune changing the date to not compete directly with Marvel, but I guess we will see. I think Marvel is locked in for the date.

I think the reason Dune isn't afraid is that Marvel movies are notoriously front-loaded. They'll both keep the date, and even though Doomsday may "win" the box office, Dune will have great legs that carry on for weeks.

As cool as "Dunesday" sounds as a term, I agree with everyone saying there's too much audience crossover for this to go as well as Barbenheimer did. Doesn't mean either will change the date, but it does likely mean they'll be competing. May also mean my husband and I go to the theater only to part ways so can watch Dune and I can watch Doomsday lol.